Chiefs vs. Bills odds, line, spread: Week 6 picks, Monday NFL predictions from model on 106-70 roll

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills were supposed to lock horns on Thursday Night Football in Week 6, but after the Bills had their Week 5 game against the Titans postponed to Tuesday, the NFL moved Bills vs. Chiefs to Monday at 5 p.m. ET. Now, the two AFC divisional leaders will try to maintain control in their respective races with a win. Both teams are 4-1 on the season and 3-2 against the spread. This will be their first meeting since a 16-10 Bills win in 2017.

The Chiefs are coming off a disappointing 40-32 loss as 10.5-point favorites over the Raiders last week, while the Bills suffered a similarly shocking 42-16 loss as 3.5-point favorites over Tennessee. Kansas City is a five-point road favorite, while the over-under is 57 in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from William Hill. Before locking in any Bills vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 10-5 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model entered Week 6 on an incredible 106-70 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Bills. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds from William Hill and trends for Chiefs vs. Bills:

  • Chiefs vs. Bills spread: Kansas City -5
  • Chiefs vs. Bills over-under: 57 points
  • Chiefs vs. Bills money line: Kansas City -230, Buffalo +195
  • BUF: Bills are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games versus the AFC West
  • KC: Chiefs are 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 games

Why the Bills can cover

The Bills dealt with the uncertainty surrounding the Titans game before being blown out on Tuesday night. However, they were only outgained 370-334, as their loss was largely the function of losing the turnover battle 3-0. Buffalo actually went 13-for-17 on third down.

Buffalo’s offense has taken enormous strides forward in 2020, with quarterback Josh Allen completing 69.3 percent of his passes for 1,589 yards and 14 touchdowns against just three interceptions. He’s helped the Bills convert on a league-leading 57.8 percent of third downs this season, which should be critical against a Kansas City defense that allowed Las Vegas to convert 7-of-14 on third down last week.

Why the Chiefs can cover

Despite giving up 40 points to the Raiders in Week 5, the Chiefs’ defense has been markedly improved in 2020. The Bills allow pressure on 30 percent of dropbacks,

Cowboys vs. Cardinals odds, line: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 106-70 roll

The Dallas Cowboys will turn to quarterback Andy Dalton this week when they battle the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football. Dalton takes over for Dak Prescott (ankle), who is expected to miss the rest of the season after suffering a gruesome injury last Sunday. Both teams are coming off victories. Arizona (3-2) rolled to a 30-10 victory over the New York Jets, while Dallas (2-3) rallied behind Dalton for a 37-34 victory over the New York Giants.

Kickoff from AT&T Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET, and Dallas leads the all-time series 56-31-1. The Cardinals are one-point favorites in the latest Cowboys vs. Cardinals odds from William Hill, while the over-under is 55.5. Before making any Cardinals vs. Cowboys picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 10-5 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 6 on an incredible 106-70 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Cardinals vs. Cowboys. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Cowboys vs. Cardinals:

  • Cowboys vs. Cardinals spread: Cardinals -1
  • Cowboys vs. Cardinals over-under: 55.5 points
  • Cowboys vs. Cardinals money line: Cardinals -120, Cowboys +100
  • ARI: 16th in the NFL in points per game at 25.6
  • DAL: 0-5 against the spread this season

Why the Cardinals can cover

Quarterback Kyler Murray has been electric so far this season. Last week against the New York Jets, Murray threw for a career-high 380 yards. He leads all quarterbacks with 296 rushing yards and five rushing TDs. He is the fourth QB since 1970 with five or more rushing TDs in the team’s first five games of a season. He is looking for his third road game in a row with a 100-plus rating.

Running back Kenyan Drake leads the Cardinals in rushing, carrying 85 times for 314 yards and two touchdowns. He has converted 20 first downs. In his only career game against Dallas, as a member of the Miami Dolphins in 2019, Drake had 72 yards from scrimmage.

Why the Cowboys can cover

Despite that, Arizona is not a lock to cover the Cardinals vs. Cowboys spread. That’s because Dallas still has a strong offense, despite the loss of Prescott. After taking over last week, Dalton completed 9-of-11 attempts for 111 yards and a 108.7 rating. He has six touchdowns and no interceptions for a 100.5 rating in three career starts against the Cardinals.

Also powering the