The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills were supposed to lock horns on Thursday Night Football in Week 6, but after the Bills had their Week 5 game against the Titans postponed to Tuesday, the NFL moved Bills vs. Chiefs to Monday at 5 p.m. ET. Now, the two AFC divisional leaders will try to maintain control in their respective races with a win. Both teams are 4-1 on the season and 3-2 against the spread. This will be their first meeting since a 16-10 Bills win in 2017.
The Chiefs are coming off a disappointing 40-32 loss as 10.5-point favorites over the Raiders last week, while the Bills suffered a similarly shocking 42-16 loss as 3.5-point favorites over Tennessee. Kansas City is a five-point road favorite, while the over-under is 57 in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from William Hill. Before locking in any Bills vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 10-5 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model entered Week 6 on an incredible 106-70 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Bills. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds from William Hill and trends for Chiefs vs. Bills:
- Chiefs vs. Bills spread: Kansas City -5
- Chiefs vs. Bills over-under: 57 points
- Chiefs vs. Bills money line: Kansas City -230, Buffalo +195
- BUF: Bills are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games versus the AFC West
- KC: Chiefs are 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 games
Why the Bills can cover
The Bills dealt with the uncertainty surrounding the Titans game before being blown out on Tuesday night. However, they were only outgained 370-334, as their loss was largely the function of losing the turnover battle 3-0. Buffalo actually went 13-for-17 on third down.
Buffalo’s offense has taken enormous strides forward in 2020, with quarterback Josh Allen completing 69.3 percent of his passes for 1,589 yards and 14 touchdowns against just three interceptions. He’s helped the Bills convert on a league-leading 57.8 percent of third downs this season, which should be critical against a Kansas City defense that allowed Las Vegas to convert 7-of-14 on third down last week.
Why the Chiefs can cover
Despite giving up 40 points to the Raiders in Week 5, the Chiefs’ defense has been markedly improved in 2020. The Bills allow pressure on 30 percent of dropbacks,