2020 MLB Playoffs: Dodgers vs. Braves odds, picks, NLCS Game 4 predictions from proven model

The Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers square off in Game 4 of the 2020 National League Championship Series on Thursday evening. The Dodgers bludgeoned the Braves by a 15-3 margin in Game 2, though Los Angeles still trails 2-1 in the series. Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to start for the Dodgers, with Bryse Wilson on the bump for Atlanta.

First pitch is at 8:08 p.m. ET in Arlington. William Hill lists Los Angeles as the -216 favorite, up from the opener. The over-under, or total number of runs expected, is nine in the latest Braves vs. Dodgers odds. Before making any Dodgers vs. Braves picks, check out the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every pitch 10,000 times, returned more than $1,400 on its top-rated MLB money-line and run-line picks in 2019, and anyone who followed it saw huge rewards. It’s off to a profitable start in the 2020 MLB Playoffs, including hitting all three top-rated money-line MLB picks during the first week of the postseason.

Now, the model has dialed in on Dodgers vs. Braves. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the MLB odds from William Hill and trends for Braves vs. Dodgers:

  • Braves vs. Dodgers money line: Dodgers -216, Braves +196
  • Braves vs. Dodgers over-under: 9 runs
  • Braves vs. Dodgers spread: Dodgers -1.5
  • ATL: The Braves are 7-1 in the playoffs
  • LAD: The Dodgers are 10-2 in the last 12 games

Why you should back the Braves

The pitching matchup isn’t ideal for Atlanta in this matchup, with the 22-year-old Wilson making his first career playoff start. However, Wilson was at his best late in the 2020 regular season, allowing only one run in his final two starts. From there, Atlanta has one of the best bullpens in baseball, finishing fourth in bullpen ERA at 3.50 during the regular season. 

The Braves were also able to save their big arms out of the bullpen because of the lopsided nature of Game 3, leaving Brian Snitker with myriad options to attempt to slow the Dodgers. Offensively, Atlanta is tremendous, leading MLB in on-base percentage (.349), doubles (130) and slugging percentage (.483) during the regular season. The Braves were also a top-two team, trailing only the Dodgers, in home runs (103) and runs scored (348), and Atlanta is fully capable of putting up crooked numbers at any moment.

Why you should back the Dodgers

Though Kershaw has well-chronicled struggles in the playoffs when compared to the regular season, those issues haven’t migrated to 2020. Kershaw’s back problems forced the Dodgers to move him back to Game 4 but, before the NLCS, the future Hall of Fame left-hander made two starts and posted a 1.93 ERA with 19 strikeouts and only one walk. The Braves are a great offensive team, but there is every reason to be optimistic about Kershaw. 

On the offensive side, the Dodgers led MLB in runs scored (349) during the regular season and that