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2020 NFL picks, predictions from model on 114-74 run



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Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers visit Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday as part of the Week 11 NFL schedule. Both teams are vying for position in the NFL playoff picture, with the Colts entering at 6-3 and the Packers sitting at 7-2. Green Bay is riding a two-game winning streak with three victories in its last four games. Indianapolis arrives with extra rest after a 34-17 road win over the Tennessee Titans last Thursday.

Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Colts as 1.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 51.5 in the latest Packers vs. Colts odds. Before you make any Colts vs. Packers picks and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 18-9 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning over $800. The model also enters Week 11 on an incredible 114-74 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Packers vs. Colts. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Colts vs. Packers:

  • Packers vs. Colts spread: Colts -2.5
  • Packers vs. Colts over-under: 51.5 points
  • Packers vs. Colts money line: Colts -135, Packers +115
  • GB: Packers are 6-3 against the spread this season
  • IND: Colts are 3-0 against the spread when facing NFC teams

Latest Odds: Colts -1.5

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Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay is led by arguably the best pairing of a quarterback and a wide receiver in the NFL this season. Aaron Rodgers has compiled 2,578 passing yards on 8.2 yards per attempt this season, and those numbers rank near the top of the league. The future Hall of Fame signal-caller is second in the NFL in touchdown passes with 26, and Rodgers has only three interceptions on his ledger.

On the outside, Adams is a superstar, leading the league with 105.9 receiving yards per game. Adams is also a dynamic red zone threat, with nine touchdown catches in only seven games this season. All told, the Packers are one of the top offensive teams, ranking in the top six in total offense and passing offense. Green Bay also makes it count when it is in position to score, leading to the No. 3 scoring offense at 30.8 points per game.

Why the Colts can cover

The Colts are an elite defensive team this season. Indianapolis leads the NFL in total defense, giving up only 290.4 yards per game, and is excellent in stopping both the run and the pass. The Colts rank second in pass defense (198.7 yards allowed per game) and third in run defense (91.8 yards allowed per game), with top-five marks in yards per rush allowed (3.5) and yards per pass attempt allowed (6.8).

Indianapolis is also opportunistic, snatching 11 interceptions this season, and the Colts have more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed (nine).

On the offensive side, Indianapolis isn’t as explosive, but the Colts do protect quarterback Rivers. The Colts have allowed only nine sacks this season, fewest in the NFL, and Indianapolis ranks in the top ten of the league in completion percentage (68.0 percent) and passing yards (262.4 yards per game).

How to make Packers vs. Colts picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with no running back projected to exceed 50 rushing yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in more than 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick here.

So who wins Colts vs. Packers, and which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Colts vs. Packers spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that’s up over $7,800 on NFL picks, and find out.

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