Monday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 114-74 roll

Two teams in the thick of the NFC playoff picture will try to move one step closer to the postseason when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams square off on Monday Night Football at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay is coming off a 46-23 win at Carolina. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is riding high after a 23-16 victory last week over the Seahawks. Both teams have covered the spread five times this season.

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Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay is a four-point favorite in the latest Buccaneers vs. Rams odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the Over-Under for total points scored is 48. Before you make any Rams vs. Buccaneers picks, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 18-9 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 11 on an incredible 114-74 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has zeroed in on Buccaneers vs. Rams and locked in another confident against-the-spread pick. You can see it only at SportsLine. Now, here are several NFL odds and trends for Rams vs. Buccaneers:

  • Buccaneers vs. Rams spread: Tampa Bay -4
  • Buccaneers vs. Rams Over-Under: 48 points
  • Buccaneers vs. Rams money line: Tampa Bay -210, Los Angeles +180
  • TB: Leads the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (76.6)
  • LAR: DT Aaron Donald ranks second in the league in sacks (nine)

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Tampa Bay has one of the top defenses in the league. The Buccaneers rank first in rushing defense (76.6 yards per game) and third in total defense (300.3). The Bucs also rank second in sacks (32), just four behind the league-leading Steelers. 

In addition, Ronald Jones II is having a breakthrough season. The third-year running back from USC has run for 730 yards this season, which ranks third in the league. He also has run for five touchdowns, ninth-best in the NFL. He already has broken his career-high for season rushing yards of 724, which he set last season, and is on pace to crush his career-high in rushing touchdowns (six), which he also set last year.

Why the Rams can cover

Aaron Donald is having another Defensive Player of the Year-caliber season. The relentless attack man leads the NFL in pressures (56) and ranks second in sacks (nine) and hurries (41). He has as many sacks as the Jacksonville Jaguars and has helped the Rams register 31 this season, which ranks third in the NFL. 

That bodes well facing Bucs quarterback Tom Brady, who has struggled when pressured this season. The six-time Super Bowl champion has completed just 46.6 percent of his passes, has a passer rating of 61.3, and averages 4.43 yards per attempt when pressured this season. When not pressured, his completion percentage is 71.7, his passer rating is 110.2, and his average yards per attempt is 7.91.

How to make Buccaneers vs. Rams picks

Now, the model has broken down Rams vs. Buccaneers from every angle. The model is leaning over 48 points, but its much stronger play is on the spread. In fact, it says one team is covering in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see who to back here.

So who wins Rams vs. Buccaneers on Monday Night Football? And which team covers well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Rams vs. Buccaneers spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,800 on its NFL picks.

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